Why do they need to pay it back? If they pay it back, then what will happen?
I'm from a developing country. My country is objectively much worse than US in every aspect. My country doesn't export anything significant. There's no innovation. insane level of corruption. Yet we don't have this issue. Nobody screams that the country will collapse.
Is this kind of doomsday thinking an American-only culture?
The US on the other hand keeps borrowing and borrowing
Fourteenth Amendment, section 4: "The validity of the public debt of the United States...shall not be questioned."
But then nobody really screams apocalypse. But, in US, people are so alarmed about US' economy collapsing.
It's more than US Treasuries (debt) are the safe asset upon which all other assets are priced. If they go mental, then lots of assumptions break and the machines will create a financial crisis for us (humans too, but the machines will start it).
This will flow into consumer debt markets, pushing up borrowing costs for everyone (auto loans, credit cards, mortgages, etc), as all consumer debt is priced off of "risk free" US treasury yields. This could slow the US economy further, and the economy is already at stall speed without AI investment.
https://think.ing.com/snaps/us-treasury-ups-its-buying-of-lo...
https://think.ing.com/articles/rates-spark-what-the-is-going...
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/20/bonds-fed-treasury-policy
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/20/bonds-treasury-foreign-hedg...
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/19/rates-treasury-borrowing-be...
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/17/treasury-yields-warsh-bonds
Axios: Here's how America's $40 trillion debt can hit your wallet - https://www.axios.com/2026/08/20/us-40-trillion-dollars-nati... - August 20th, 2026
America Is About to Get More Expensive - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49388369 - August 2026
They have long been considered risk free. Boring, safe, low return investments. Companies or people who need absolutely reliability in their investments buy them - the elderly, pensions, insurance companies, banks the world over.
The U.S. has issued so many of these bonds that the total amount outstanding right now is $40T. This amount is so staggering that to simply pay that 5% in interest payments costs us more than it takes to fund our very large, expensive military.
If they don't pay it back, and declare all those bonds worthless - well all of those people who were relying on what they thought was a rock solid, safe investment go bust. Banks fail worldwide, pensions run dry, retirement funds suddenly are empty, all kinds of businesses collapse. It would make the financial crisis of 08 look like a joke, and it would be a true catastrophe.
That is almost surely not going to happen.
What could happen is that we enter a debt spiral - investors get worried we won't be able to pay it back, and view bonds as less than perfectly safe. They now want 6%. The U.S. has to pay even more in interest every year, so they issue more debt to roll it over, which makes it worse and we get to 7%, etc.
Typically in this situation, a country either quickly gets its act together and commits to reducing spending and raises taxes, or they just turn on the money printers, and use inflation to make that debt smaller in real terms. I have little faith in the U.S. to commit to fiscal austerity and expect them to try to inflate the debt away.
Plus it'd also massively increase USG deficits since all the debt that's added and rolled over would be financed at that elevated rate. At that point, cuts would amplify the above domino effect (cf. Kalecki Levy equation) reducing tax intake, but no cuts would mean unleashing a debt spiral.
I think the only way out is to reduce military spending, nationalize the health care system, and tax the hell outta the ultra wealthy. But I suspect that won’t happen at least based on the current oligarchy running the country.
It’s really unfortunate too, because we could be taking on debt to invest in citizens like making college free, improving teacher salaries, and general infrastructure but… we ain’t.
Blaming the democrats for republican deficits has worked for the past 40 years, why stop now?
Note that this means, to me, we need to get our shit together sooner instead of later. A little austerity now may prevent outright default later when significant austerity is forced.
[1] https://www.aarp.org/money/retirement/peak-boomer-readiness/
1. cut back on SS and other benefits you can afford out of pocket 2. tax your income higher
I would wager they would choose 1. To this group, the taxes hurt worse than the benefit losses
For poor retirees: 1. cut benefits 2. don't cut benefits
I would wager they would choose 1
The other two commonly suggested fixes -- tax the wealthy and broad tax increases -- also fail in my opinion. The holes we are talking about are in the hundreds of billions per year and won't be fixed by taxing just the wealthy. A broad middle class tax increase will also likely be rejected as unpopular.
It really is my belief that a slow-motion failure here is best. If any fix occurs as the social security trust fund is at 0 cash and while the bond market is in revolt, there will be no fiscal room to maneuver to raise cash from the debt which forces rationing.
(This is not financial advice)
High inflation helps those who borrow with fixed terms. If you have a mortgage, don't pay it off. Don't pay off low interest rate debt. Consider acquiring a responsible amount of low-medium interest rate debt. Put your money into stocks and other assets that will appreciate with inflation.