https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/spacex-ki...
- Price/Sales about 128x (NVIDIA had a peak of a 40x at its peak)
- Bought Twitter per 44 billions. Inflated its valuation to $250 billion just by integrating it into X.AI
- EnterpriseValue/EBITDA about 219x (30x for scaleup business) and negative Price-to-Earnings
- Low free-float trick (minimal public shares available)
Even the market efficiency hypothesis struggles to justify it
It's below where it opened trading on the first day which I guess is what the editorialised headline is supposed to mean. Trading opened at about 160 on the 12th and is about 155 now. Such fluctuations don't really mean much.
I remember the same headlines right after Facebook's IPO. The discourse was very much that it was obvious that a website to connect with your friends wouldn't make money.
And anyway, orbital data centers have no chance. They’re just like the Mars colony, an Elon boondoggle.
Funny how the above absolutely does not apply at the local scale. The same people blindly trusting Elon probably don’t trust their neighbors to even hold a parcel for them.
Of course there's limits to that, but SpaceX has a lot of cash to absorb failures, unlike in the early days.
And have it be permanently embedded.
This is why people sometimes use forward P/E but that does have the obvious drawback of the denominator not actually existing yet.
However with SpaceX the valuation is extreme and also can they grow at that rate for years on end? Potentially not
Considering how far behind Grok is (revenue-wise, but also quality-wise [1]), that seems very unlikely to me, and while this might be overly optimistic I think there's a chance that with SpaceX being public, Elon's drug addiction and pathological lying might catch up with him.
[1] Disclaimer, I've only used the free version of Grok. Maybe the paid one is great but I doubt it's better than Claude or OpenAI and I don't want to give Elon money since he seems to have done a pretty good job buying the executive branch with it.
Elon and some major early investors are locked up for a whole year.
https://advisors.vanguard.com/investments/products/vti/vangu... (there's a search by ticker under Holdings)
It feels like a lot of retail buyers know the emperor is naked, but are still acting on greed, thinking they can "catch the falling knife" and time the market departure to profit from the hype...
Of course active investors could do something like short Space X by exactly the amount that their funds have to more or less "cancel out" their investment, but most people aren't active investors.
I now use the Interactive Brokers MCP to make a "pseudo QQQ" which has all companies except Tesla and SpaceX in there, and I otherwise use the same weights as the official QQQ. In order to avoid tax overhead, my rebalancing is buy-only, no selling, so it's not a perfect analog to QQQ but it's close enough and I at least got some of my capital out of SpaceX.